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Prediction for CME (2023-07-18T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-18T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26092/-1
CME Note: The source of this NE CME is likely an eruption and M1.4 flare from AR 3376 (N27E35) starting ~2023-07-18T19:25Z as seen in SDO AIA. This event partially overlaps with CME 2023-07-18T20:36Z. Arrival signature: from Tarik Mohammad (LASSOS team) a well-defined shock (increase in magnetic field strength, proton density, and bulk speed). A possible sheath region following the shock (enhancements in all the parameters). The possible ICME ejecta start is ~2023-07-21T22:20Z: rotations in both B_y (positive to negative) and B_z (negative to positive) and a sharp decrease in proton density and decrease in bulk speed and temperature. Possibly flank CME encounter since the components (specially B_x and B_y) remain constant. The end of the ICME ejecta is difficult to determine as we have a trailing high-speed stream. The possible end is around 2023-07-22T06:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-21T19:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-21T09:15Z (-10.52h, +13.19h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/07/18 20:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 00:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction; Note: CH HSS correction
Plane of Sky 2: 05:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
POS Difference: 4:40
POS Midpoint: 03:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:50

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.94
Travel Time: ~8.94 * 6:50 = 61:05

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-07-21T09:15Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 15%

Lead Time: 45.03 hour(s)
Difference: 10.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-07-19T22:23Z

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